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Forecasting Cattle Prices In The Presence Of Structural Change

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  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

Recent empirical research and development in the cattle industry suggest several reasons to suspect structural change in economic relationships determining cattle prices. Standard forecasting models may ignore structural change and may produce biased and misleading forecasts. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models that allow parameters to vary with time are used to forecast quarterly cattle prices. The VAR procedures are flexible in that they allow the identification of structural change that begins at an a priori unknown point and occurs gradually. The results indicate that the lowest RMSE for out-of-sample forecasts of cattle prices is obtained using a gradually switching VAR model. However, differences between the gradually switching VAR model and a univeriate ARIMA model are not strongly significant. Impulse response functions indicate that adjustments of cattle prices to new information have become faster in recent years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1992)
Issue (Month): 02 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29632

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Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm
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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis;

References

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  1. Ronald A. Babula & David A. Bessler & Gerald E. Schluter, 1991. "Corn|broiler price transmissions and structural change since the 1950s," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 269-284.
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  5. Chalfant, James A & Alston, Julian M, 1988. "Accounting for Changes in Tastes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 391-410, April.
  6. Bedrossian, Arakel & Moschos, Demetrios, 1988. "Industrial Structure, Concentration and the Speed of Price Adjustment," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 459-76, June.
  7. Kling, John L & Bessler, David A, 1989. "Calibration-Based Predictive Distributions: An Application of Prequential Analysis to Interest Rates, Money, Prices, and Output," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 477-99, October.
  8. Tsurumi, Hiroki & Wago, Hajime & Ilmakunnas, Pekka, 1986. "Gradual switching multivariate regression models with stochastic cross-equational constraints and an application to the Klem translog production model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 235-253, April.
  9. Pendell, Dustin L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2004. "Spatial Market Integration In Regional Cattle Markets," 2004 Annual Meeting, June 30-July 2, 2004, Honolulu, Hawaii 36265, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  10. David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, 03.
  11. Moschini, GianCarlo & Meilke, Karl D., 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers 11266, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Dixon, R J, 1983. "Industry Structure and the Speed of Price Adjustment," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 25-37, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Adams, Jaime Coakley & MacNair, Douglas J. & Bingham, Matthew F. & Hostetter, Leigh, 2003. "Peach Prices In California In The Presence Of Technological Change In The Agricultural Pesticide Industry," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22089, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Sykuta, Michael E. & Fulcher, Christopher L., 2005. "Market Integration: Case Studies of Structural Change," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 34(2), October.

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