Does More Government Deficit Lead to a Higher Long-term Interest Rate? Application of an Extended Loanable Funds Model to Estonia
AbstractApplying and extending the open-economy loanable funds model, this article shows that more government borrowing or debt as a percent of GDP leads to a higher government bond yield, that a higher real money market rate, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher EU government bond yield, or depreciation of the Estonian kroon (EEK) would increase the Estonian government bond yield, and that the negative coefficient of the percent change in real GDP has an unexpected sign. When the conventional closed-economy or openeconomy loanable funds model is considered, the article finds that more government borrowing as a percent of GDP does not result in a higher government bond yield, that the positive coefficients of the real money market rate, the growth rate of real GDP, and the expected inflation are significant at the 1%, 5% or 10% level, and that the negative coefficient of the ratio of the net capital inflow to GDP in the conventional open-economy loanable funds model is significant at the 1% level.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.
Volume (Year): 12 (2010)
Issue (Month): 28 (June)
government deficits; long-term interest rates; loanable funds model; expected inflation; world interest rates; exchange rates;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- P43 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Santis, Roberto A. & Lührmann, Melanie, 2009. "On the determinants of net international portfolio flows: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 880-901, September.
- Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1991. "The Temporal Causality Between Fiscal Deficits And Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(3), pages 12-23, 07.
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