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Labor Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles

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  • Yongsung Chang
  • Jay H. Hong
  • Marios Karabarbounis

Abstract

The standard life-cycle models of household portfolio choice have difficulty generating a realistic age profile of risky share. These models not only imply a high risky share on average but also a steeply decreasing age profile, whereas the risky share is mildly increasing in the data. We introduce age-dependent, labor market uncertainty into an otherwise standard model. A great uncertainty in the labor market—high unemployment risk, frequent job turnovers, and an unknown career path—prevents young workers from taking too much risk in the financial market. As labor market uncertainty is resolved over time, workers start taking more risk in their financial portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong & Marios Karabarbounis, 2018. "Labor Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 222-262, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:222-62
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160207
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    1. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    2. Julio Gálvez & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2022. "Richer earnings dynamics, consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle," Working Papers 2241, Banco de España.
    3. Minsu Chang, 2024. "Changing Marital Transitions and Homeownership Among Young Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 46-63, April.
    4. Yongsung Chang & Jay Hong & Marios Karabarbounis & Yicheng Wang & Tao Zhang, 2022. "Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 65-90, April.
    5. Yongsung Chang & Jay Hong & Marios Karabarbounis & Yicheng Wang & Tao Zhang, 2022. "Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 65-90, April.
    6. Fong, Joelle H. & Koh, Benedict S.K. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2021. "Financial literacy and financial decision-making at older ages," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Kartik Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan, 2023. "Stock Market Participation: The Role of Human Capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 1-18, January.
    8. Mann, Katja & Davenport, Margaret, 2016. "Demography, Capital Flows and Asset Allocation over the Life-cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145948, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Jung, Daesun & Kim, Young Sik, 2020. "Income volatility, household leverage, and consumption in Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.
    12. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 265, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    13. Gao, Xiang & Sun, Li, 2021. "Modeling retirees’ investment behaviors in the presence of health expenditure risk and financial crisis risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 442-454.
    14. Ivo Bakota, 2020. "Capital Income Taxation with Portfolio Choice," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp668, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Mark Huggett & Greg Kaplan, 2016. "How Large is the Stock Component of Human Capital?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 21-51, October.
    16. Hubar, Sylwia & Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian, 2020. "The role of labor-income risk in household risk-taking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Christos I. Giannikos & Efstathia D. Korkou, 2023. "Gender and Risk-Taking in the Building of U.S. Retirement Wealth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 259-274, December.
    18. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Unemployment risk, portfolio choice, and the racial wealth gap," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_508, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    19. Park, Jin Seok & Suh, Donghyun, 2019. "Uncertainty and household portfolio choice : Evidence from South Korea," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 21-24.
    20. Wang, Yuanping & Wang, Dongfang & Hou, Chunxiao, 2022. "Information acquisition and asset allocation with unknown income growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    21. Du, You, 2023. "Health investment and medical risk: New explanations of the portfolio puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    22. You Du & Weige Huang, 2023. "Portfolio Allocation with Medical Expenditure Risk-A Life Cycle Model and Machine Learning Analysis," Journal of Regional Economics, Anser Press, vol. 2(1), pages 53-68, October.
    23. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 086, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    24. Fong, Joelle H. & Koh, Benedict SK. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2019. "Financial literacy and suboptimal financial decisions at older ages," CFS Working Paper Series 630, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. Christos I. Giannikos & Efstathia Korkou, 2022. "Gender Differences in Risk-Taking Investment Strategies in Defined Contribution Plans," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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