Unemployment, Participation and Worker Flows Over the Life Cycle
AbstractWe estimate and report life cycle transition probabilities between employment, unemployment and inactivity for male workers using Current Population Survey monthly files. We assess the relative importance of each probability in explaining the life cycle profiles of participation and unemployment rates using a novel decomposition method. A key robust finding is that most differences in participation and unemployment over the life cycle can be attributed to the probability of leaving employment and the probability of transiting from inactivity to unemployment, while transitions from unemployment to employment (the job finding probability) play secondary roles. We then show that a simple life cycle extension of a three-state labor search model with leisure shocks can qualitatively replicate the empirical unemployment and participation life cycle profiles, without introducing age or worker heterogeneity in market abilities. We conclude that models that seek to explain life cycle work patterns should not ignore transitions to and from inactivity. JEL Codes: D91, E24, J64.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 278.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Sekyu Choi & Alexandre Janiak & Benjamín Villena-Roldán, 2012. "Unemployment, Participation and Worker Flows Over the Life-Cycle," Working Papers 617, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Benjamin Villena-Roldan & Alexandre Janiak & Sekyu Choi, 2011. "Unemployment, Participation and Worker Flows over the Life Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 602, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2011-11-14 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-LAB-2011-11-14 (Labour Economics)
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