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Occupation-Level Income Shocks and Asset Returns: Their Covariance and Implications for Portfolio Choice

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Author Info
Steven J. Davis
Paul Willen

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Abstract

This paper develops and applies a simple graphical approach to portfolio selection that accounts for covariance between asset returns and an investor's labor income. Our graphical approach easily handles income shocks that are partly hedgable, multiple risky assets, many periods and life cycle considerations. We apply the approach to occupation-level components of individual income innovations estimated from repeated cross sections of the Current Population Survey. We characterize several properties of these innovations, including their covariance with aggregate equity returns, long-term bond returns and returns on several other assets. Aggregate equity returns are uncorrelated with the occupation-level income innovations, but a portfolio formed on firm size is significantly correlated with income innovations for several occupations, and so are selected industry-level equity portfolios. An application of the theory to the empirical results shows (a) large predicted levels of risky asset holdings compared to observed levels, (b) considerable variation in optimal portfolio allocations over the life cycle, and (c) large departures from the two-fund separation principle.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7905.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7905

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Steven J. Davis & Jeremy Nalewaik & Paul Willen, 2000. "On the Gains to International Trade in Risky Financial Assets," NBER Working Papers 7796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rose, Nancy L, 1987. "Labor Rent Sharing and Regulation: Evidence from the Trucking Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1146-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ravi Jagannathan & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "Why should older people invest less in stock than younger people?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 11-23. [Downloadable!]
  7. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1997. "Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, And Portfolio Choice," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 76-101, January. [Downloadable!]
  8. Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 7409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:76-101 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael Haliassos & Alexandros Michaelides, 1999. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 9918, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Niko Canner & N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1994. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Human capital and capital market equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 95-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bottazzi, Laura & Pesenti, Paolo & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "Wages, profits and the international portfolio puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 219-254, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice With Internal Habit Formation: A Life-Cycle Model With Uninsurable Labor Income Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 729-766, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Junjian Miao & Neng Wang, 2005. "Investment, Consumption and Hedging under Incomplete Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-011, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2002. "Job Search Behavior At The End Of The Life Cycle," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2002-10, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sule Alan, 2005. "Entry Costs and Stock Market Participation Over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 2005_1, York University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Job Search Behavior over the Life Cycle with Empirical Applications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 100, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Anthony W. Lynch & Sinan Tan, 2004. "Labor Income Dynamics at Business-Cycle Frequencies: Implications for Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 11010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yannis Bilias & Michael Haliassos, 2004. "The Distribution of Gains from Access to Stocks," CSEF Working Papers 125, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Luc Arrondel & Hector Calvo-Pardo, 2002. "Portfolio Choice with a Correlated Background Risk : Theory and Evidence," DELTA Working Papers 2002-16, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  9. Dariusz Stanko, 2003. "Polish Pension Funds, Does The System Work? Cost, Efficiency and Performance MeasurementIssues," Public Economics 0302001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. P. R. Lane, 2001. "The National Pensions Reserve Fund: Pitfalls and Opportunities," Trinity Economics Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Do behavioral biases adversely affect the macro-economy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gomes, Francisco J & Michaelides, Alexander, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents," CEPR Discussion Papers 6136, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Utkus, 2002. "The Role of Company Stock in Defined Contribution Plans," NBER Working Papers 9250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrew A. Samwick & Jonathan Skinner, 2004. "How Will 401(k) Pension Plans Affect Retirement Income?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 329-343, March. [Downloadable!]
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