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Simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series

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Cited by:

  1. Chacon, Alvaro & Kaufmann, Esther, 2025. "An overview of the effects of algorithm use on judgmental biases affecting forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 424-439.
  2. Ulrich, Matthias & Jahnke, Hermann & Langrock, Roland & Pesch, Robert & Senge, Robin, 2022. "Classification-based model selection in retail demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 209-223.
  3. Xing, Xiaoxuan & Gong, Dunwei & Wang, Yan & Sun, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Yong, 2025. "Acceptable cost-driven multivariate load forecasting for integrated coal mine energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 397(C).
  4. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
  5. Blanc, Sebastian M. & Setzer, Thomas, 2016. "When to choose the simple average in forecast combination," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 3951-3962.
  6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Hyndman, Rob J. & Bergmeir, Christoph, 2018. "Exploring the sources of uncertainty: Why does bagging for time series forecasting work?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(2), pages 545-554.
  7. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  8. Dimitrios Sarris & Evangelos Spiliotis & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2020. "Exploiting resampling techniques for model selection in forecasting: an empirical evaluation using out-of-sample tests," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 701-721, June.
  9. Wu, Zhuochun & Xia, Xiangjie & Xiao, Liye & Liu, Yilin, 2020. "Combined model with secondary decomposition-model selection and sample selection for multi-step wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
  10. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2021. "Retail sales forecasting with meta-learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 111-128.
  11. Villegas, Marco A. & Pedregal, Diego J., 2019. "Automatic selection of unobserved components models for supply chain forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 157-169.
  12. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
  13. Kang, Yanfei & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Athiniotis, Nikolaos & Li, Feng & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 719-731.
  14. Kubiv Stepan & Balanyuk Yuriy, 2019. "Development of a combined method for predicting discrete time series with non-stability for forecasting military goods demand," Technology audit and production reserves, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 6(4(50)).
  15. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
  16. López Menéndez, Ana Jesús & Pérez Suárez, Rigoberto, 2017. "Forecasting Performance and Information Measures. Revisiting the M-Competition /Evaluación de Predicciones y Medidas de Información. Reexamen de la M-Competición," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 299-314, Mayo.
  17. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Saayman, Andrea & Jean-Pierre, Philippe & Provenzano, Davide & Sahli, Mondher & Seetaram, Neelu & Volo, Serena, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  18. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
  19. Hartzel, Kathleen S. & Wood, Charles A., 2017. "Factors that affect the improvement of demand forecast accuracy through point-of-sale reporting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(1), pages 171-182.
  20. Abdelfatah, Omar Sharafeldin Mohamed, 2026. "AI-Driven Demand Forecasting and Its Impact on Inventory Optimization," SocArXiv uw57j_v1, Center for Open Science.
  21. Fildes, Robert & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2015. "Is there a Golden Rule?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1742-1745.
  22. Oluwasola Oluwaseun Mustapha & Dr. Terry Sithole, 2025. "Forecasting Retail Sales using Machine Learning Models," American Journal of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, AJPO Journals Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 35-67.
  23. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2020. "Forecasting third-party mobile payments with implications for customer flow prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 739-760.
  24. Deepa Mishra & Angappa Gunasekaran & Thanos Papadopoulos & Stephen J. Childe, 2018. "Big Data and supply chain management: a review and bibliometric analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 313-336, November.
  25. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "On the update frequency of univariate forecasting models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 111-121.
  26. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
  27. Fotios Petropoulos & Enno Siemsen, 2023. "Forecast Selection and Representativeness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2672-2690, May.
  28. Bacci, Livio Agnew & Mello, Luiz Gustavo & Incerti, Taynara & Paulo de Paiva, Anderson & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo, 2019. "Optimization of combined time series methods to forecast the demand for coffee in Brazil: A new approach using Normal Boundary Intersection coupled with mixture designs of experiments and rotated factor scores," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 186-211.
  29. Zeynep Hilal Kilimci & A. Okay Akyuz & Mitat Uysal & Selim Akyokus & M. Ozan Uysal & Berna Atak Bulbul & Mehmet Ali Ekmis, 2019. "An Improved Demand Forecasting Model Using Deep Learning Approach and Proposed Decision Integration Strategy for Supply Chain," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, March.
  30. Phillip A. Cartwright & Natalija Riabko, 2019. "Do spot food commodity and oil prices predict futures prices?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 153-194, July.
  31. Petropoulos, Fotios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2023. "Model combinations through revised base rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1477-1492.
  32. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2022. "The performance of the global bottom-up approach in the M5 accuracy competition: A robustness check," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1492-1499.
  33. Dinesh Reddy Vangumalli & Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Konstantia Litsiou, 2019. "Clustering, Forecasting and Cluster Forecasting: using k-medoids, k-NNs and random forests for cluster selection," Working Papers 19016, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  34. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
  35. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Kouloumos, Andreas & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Makridakis, Spyros, 2020. "Are forecasting competitions data representative of the reality?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 37-53.
  36. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
  37. Wu, Zhuochun & Xiao, Liye, 2019. "A structure with density-weighted active learning-based model selection strategy and meteorological analysis for wind speed vector deterministic and probabilistic forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1178-1194.
  38. Han, Weiwei & Wang, Xun & Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Jing, 2019. "Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-9.
  39. Ana Lazcano & Miguel A. Jaramillo-Morán & Julio E. Sandubete, 2024. "Back to Basics: The Power of the Multilayer Perceptron in Financial Time Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
  40. Qi, Lingzhi & Li, Xixi & Wang, Qiang & Jia, Suling, 2023. "fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1303-1317.
  41. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2019. "Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 687-698.
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