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Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  2. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
  3. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "Central bank forecasting: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
  4. Derrick Kanngiesser & Tim Willems, 2024. "Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England – and how errors can be leveraged to do better," Bank of England working papers 1078, Bank of England.
  5. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "What the Moment Demands," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(30), pages 1-6, November.
  6. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
  7. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
  8. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
  9. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  10. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
  11. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2024. "The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
  12. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021. "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers 11284, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
  13. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2023. "Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 714-734, August.
  14. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Winkelmann, Yannik, 2025. "Inflation and price flexibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Petrella Ivan & Santoro Emiliano & Winkelmann Yannik, 2025. "Inflation and Price Flexibility," Working papers 099, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
  15. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  16. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
  17. Daniel H. Cooper & Giovanni P. Olivei & Hannah Rhodenhiser, 2025. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set," Working Papers 25-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  18. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2025. "Gauging growth risk in an international financial centre: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(5), pages 2199-2224, May.
  19. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
  20. Marián Vávra, 2020. "Assessing distributional properties of forecast errors for fan-chart modelling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2841-2858, December.
  21. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  22. Ding, Yibing & Liu, Ziyu & Liu, Dayu, 2022. "Structural news shock, financial market uncertainty and China's business fluctuations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  23. Gregory R. Duffee, 2023. "Macroeconomic News in Asset Pricing and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1499-1543, June.
  24. Kevin L Kliesen, 2023. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 423-450, August.
  25. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  26. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
  27. G. Kontogeorgos & K. Lambrias, 2022. "Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: The first 20 years," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 213-229, March.
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