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Market depth and order size: an analysis of permanent price effects of DAX futures' trades

  • Kempf, Alexander
  • Korn, Olaf
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    In this paper we empirically analyze the permanent price impact of trades by investigating the relation between unexpected net order flow and price changes. We use intraday data on German index futures. Our analysis based on a neural network model suggests that the assumption of a linear impact of orders on prices (which is often used in theoretical papers) is highly questionable. Therefore, empirical studies, comparing the depth of different markets, should be based on the whole price impact function instead of a simple ratio. To allow the market depth to depend on trade volume could open promising avenues for further theoretical research. This could lead to quite different trading strategies as in traditional models.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24262/1/dp1098.pdf
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    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 98-10.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5183
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    1. Hausman, J.A. & Lo, A.W. & MacKinlay, A.C., 1991. "An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices," Weiss Center Working Papers 26-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    2. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
    3. Madhavan, A. & Smidt, S., 1991. "A Baysian Model of Intraday Specialist Pricing," Weiss Center Working Papers 2-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    4. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    5. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1992. "Stock price manipulation, market microstructure and asymmetric information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 624-630, April.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    7. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
    8. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
    10. LaPlante, Michele & Muscarella, Chris J., 1997. "Do institutions receive comparable execution in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets? A transaction study of block trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 97-134, July.
    11. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    13. Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, 1996. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-34, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    14. Chan, Louis K. C. & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-199, April.
    15. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36.
    16. Kraus, Alan & Stoll, Hans R, 1972. "Price Impacts of Block Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 569-88, June.
    17. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1987. "The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-267, December.
    18. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. " The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-74, September.
    19. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
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