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Economic dependency ratios: Present situation and future scenarios

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  • Loichinger, Elke
  • Hammer, Bernhard
  • Prskawetz, Alexia
  • Freiberger, Michael
  • Sambt, Joze

Abstract

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take not only into account the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption. In simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. In addition, the specific definitions of the ratios will result in different interpretations of dependency. The choice which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Loichinger, Elke & Hammer, Bernhard & Prskawetz, Alexia & Freiberger, Michael & Sambt, Joze, 2014. "Economic dependency ratios: Present situation and future scenarios," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2014, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuweco:022014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernhard Hammer & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The public reallocation of resources across age: a comparison of Austria and Sweden," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 541-560, August.
    2. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    4. Alexia Prskawetz & Jože Sambt, 2014. "Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(34), pages 963-1010.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chomik, Rafal & McDonald, Peter & Piggott, John, 2016. "Population ageing in Asia and the Pacific: Dependency metrics for policy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 5-18.
    3. Alexander J Q Parsons & Stuart Gilmour, 2018. "An evaluation of fertility- and migration-based policy responses to Japan’s ageing population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Lyashok, Victor & Roshchin, Sergey, 2015. "Effect of health on labor supply of elderly," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 40(4), pages 6-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Transfer Accounts; Economic Dependency Ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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