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Non-constant hazard function and inflation dynamics

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  • Yao, Fang

Abstract

This paper explores implications of nominal rigidity characterized by a non-constant hazard function for aggregate dynamics. I derive the NKPC under an arbitrary hazard function and parameterize it with the Weibull duration model. The resulting Phillips curve involves lagged inflation and lagged expectations. It nests the Calvo NKPC as a limiting case in the sense that the effects of both terms are canceled out under the constant-hazard assumption. Furthermore, I find lagged inflation always has negative coefficients, thereby making it impossible to interpret inflation persistence as intrinsic. The numerical evaluation shows that the increasing hazard function leads to hump-shaped impulse responses of inflation to monetary shocks, and output leads inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Fang, 2009. "Non-constant hazard function and inflation dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-030, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2009-030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Benjamin Eden, 2014. "Rigid Prices: Evidence From U.S. Scanner Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 423-442, May.
    3. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    5. Lorenz Goette & Rudolf Minsch & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Micro Evidence on the Adjustment of Sticky-Price Goods: It's How Often, not How Much," Discussion Papers 05-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    6. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    7. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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