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The euro and the transatlantic capital market leadership: A recursive cointegration analysis

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  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

In this paper, the capital market relations between the Euro area and the USA are subject to investigation. Formally based on the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), first a longrun equilibrium between Euro and US government bond yields is established in backward recursively estimated vector error correction models (VECMs). Subsequently, the focus lies on interest rate leadership and adjustment as well as capital market integration. One major finding shows, that the foundation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) strengthened its role relative to the USA. Furthermore, the transatlantic connections have become closer in the course time.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo, 2006. "The euro and the transatlantic capital market leadership: A recursive cointegration analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-056, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2006-056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2005. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Empirical results for the US and Europe," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-035, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    3. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    8. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    10. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, Decembrie.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Market; UIP; Euro; Transatlantic Relations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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