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Classification of west german business cycles

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  • Heilemann, Ullrich
  • Münch, Heinz Josef

Abstract

This paper applies linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents classification results for various sample periods. Special attention is given to changes of the explanatory power of the variables and its implication for changes of West German cycle patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Heilemann, Ullrich & Münch, Heinz Josef, 1999. "Classification of west german business cycles," Technical Reports 1999,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:199911
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/77146/2/1999-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    2. John R. Meyer & Daniel H. Weinberg, 1976. "On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 4, pages 140-141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Heilemann, Ullrich & Munch, Heinz Josef, 1992. "Understanding Macroeconomic Models: Structural Sensitivity Analysis of a Medium-Sized Model," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Kluwer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 247-270, August.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Michelle R. Garfinkel, 1992. "The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence: Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (held October 17-18 1991)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. John R. Meyer & Daniel H. Weinberg, 1975. "On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2, pages 167-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1986. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 519-582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Introduction: Continuity and Change in Theory, Behavior,and Methodology," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 1-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Holtemöller & Torsten Schmidt, 2008. "Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Germany 1975–1998," Ruhr Economic Papers 0068, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Holtemöller, Oliver & Schmidt, Torsten, 2008. "Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Germany 1975–1998," Ruhr Economic Papers 68, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Scholz, Martin & Klinkenberg, Ralf, 2006. "Boosting Classifiers for Drifting Concepts," Technical Reports 2006,06, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    4. Pumplün, Constanze & Weihs, Claus & Preusser, Andrea, 2004. "Experimental Design for Variable Selection in data bases," Technical Reports 2004,72, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    5. Ulrich FRITSCHE & Vladimir KOUZINE, 2010. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," EcoMod2004 330600054, EcoMod.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0068 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E29 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Other

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