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The robustness of the effects of public investment in infrastructure on private output: Evidence for Germany

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  • Kitlinski, Tobias

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of public investment in infrastructure on private output for Germany. Using a multivariate framework we explore the impact of a diverging selection of variables on the ensuing estimates and document confidence intervals computed following the bootstrap procedure. Our results suggest that the effect of public investment in infrastructure is positive on GDP and private investment while the labor market is negatively affected. However, the size of the estimated effects strongly depends on the choice of the variables. Furthermore, an investigation of a recursive estimation reveals that the estimated effects decrease over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "The robustness of the effects of public investment in infrastructure on private output: Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 560, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:560
    DOI: 10.4419/86788641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    2. Pedro R. D. Bom & Jenny Ligthart, 2008. "How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2206, CESifo.
    3. Raymond Batina, 1998. "On the Long Run Effects of Public Capital and Disaggregated Public Capital on Aggregate Output," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 263-281, July.
    4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    5. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public investment; infrastructure; vector autoregressive models; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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