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The highs and the lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926

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  • Kenny, Sean
  • Ögren, Anders
  • Zhao, Liang

Abstract

This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).

Suggested Citation

  • Kenny, Sean & Ögren, Anders & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "The highs and the lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202303
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/268424/1/1832919900.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Lennard & Seán Kenny & Emma Horgan, 2023. "Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966," Discussion Papers 2402, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; survival analysis; early warning indicators; debt deflation; maturity mismatch; Sweden;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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