A georeferenced agent-based model for farmer's decision-making to adopt biorefineries

The transition to a sustainable bioeconomy represents a crucial strategy for mitigating climate change and reducing dependence on fossil resources. Central to this strategy is the development of bio-based alternatives through innovative technologies, such as biorefineries. The success of this transition, however, depends on farmers' adoption of these technologies. The factors influencing their decision to participate or not are complex and not fully understood. This study developed and analysed an agent-based model that integrates georeferenced data on biomass availability with socio-economic factors driving farmers' willingness to participate in a biorefinery operating system. The model uses spatial and sectoral data sources to simulate farmer interactions, decision-making processes, and the formation of cooperative biorefinery operating systems in a spatially explicit environment. The results show that cooperation is a prerequisite for establishing comprehensive industrial production of bio-based platform chemicals in decentralized integrated biorefineries. Key barriers to adoption extend beyond techno-economic feasibility and include social factors that together influence a farmer's willingness to participate in novel bioeconomy value creation networks. The model also highlights a first-mover advantage for early adopters, as they have better access to the limited amount of biomass and cooperation partners. The findings of this study suggest that policy interventions should prioritize improving information flow and facilitating coordination among farmers to translate biorefinery potential into widespread practice, as these measures are expected to enhance technology adoption.