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Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2018 - Aufschwung stösst an Grenzen: Belebung nur temporär
[German Economy Winter 2018 - Upswing stretched to its limits: Acceleration only temporary]

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

Der Aufschwung in Deutschland gerät zunehmend ins Stocken. Im dritten Quartal ging die Wirtschaftsleistung zum ersten Mal seit drei Jahren zurück. Dieser Rückgang war vor allem Sonderfaktoren geschuldet. Insbesondere schlugen die Probleme mit dem neuen WLTP-Zulassungsverfahren beim Fahrzeugbau zu Buche. Hinzu kamen Produktionsbeeinträchtigungen aufgrund des Niedrigwassers im Rhein. Mit dem Auslaufen dieser temporär belastenden Faktoren wird sich das gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansionstempo zwar wohl noch einmal beschleunigen. Allerdings stößt der Aufschwung offenbar mehr und mehr an seine Grenzen. So fällt es den Unternehmen angesichts der bereits sehr hohen Kapazitätsauslastung zusehends schwerer, ihre Produktion weiter in hohem Tempo auszuweiten. Besonders augenscheinlich ist dies in der Baubranche, in der die Produktion ihre Kapazitätsgrenze wohl erreicht hat, so dass die Produktion nur noch in dem Ausmaß erhöht werden kann, wie es den Unternehmen gelingt, ihre Kapazitäten auszuweiten. Auch dürften die spürbaren Knappheiten am Arbeitsmarkt Bestand haben. Diese bremsen den Beschäftigungsaufbau und führen zu kräftig steigenden Löhnen. Die verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte dürften deutlich aufwärts gerichtet bleiben. Im kommenden Jahr führen umfangreiche Abgabensenkungen und Leistungsausweitungen zu einem zusätzlichen Schub, sodass die privaten Konsumausgaben voraussichtlich kräftig anziehen. Die Ausfuhren werden ihre jüngste Schwächephase, die nicht zuletzt auf die Probleme beim Fahrzugbau zurückging, zwar rasch hinter sich lassen. Mit der sich allmählich abkühlenden Weltkonjunktur wird aber auch die Dynamik bei den Exporten nachlassen. Vor diesem Hintergrund haben wir unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im laufenden Jahr gegenüber unserem Konjunkturausblick vom Herbst um 0,4 Prozentpunkte auf 1,5 Prozent reduziert, für das Jahr 2019 rechnen wir nun mit einer Zuwachsrate von 1,8 Prozent (Herbst: 2,0 Prozent). Im Jahr 2020 dürfte sich die konjunkturelle Dynamik zwar spürbar verringern. Aufgrund der hohen Zahl an Arbeitstagen wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt aber wohl in ähnlichem Tempo wie im Jahr 2019 zulegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2018 - Aufschwung stösst an Grenzen: Belebung nur temporär [German Economy Winter 2018 - Upswing stretched to its limits: Acceleration only temporary]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Stabilisierungspolitik; Frühindikatoren; Ausblick;
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