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Re-Analysis of Ciacci, R. (2024). Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden

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  • Adema, Joop
  • Folke, Olle
  • Rickne, Johanna

Abstract

The article "Banning the Purchase of Sex Increases Cases of Rape: Evidence from Sweden" claims that Sweden's 1999 criminalization of buying sex increased rape by 44-62% (Ciacci, 2024). This finding is surprising given the flat time trend in reported rapes around the reform year. We show that errors in the paper's statistical modeling and coding produce the main result. Similar problems exist across four alternative identification strategies. In each case, measurement error or deviations between the implemented and stated methods create the illusion of an effect. Our re-analysis finds no evidence that the policy increased rape. The paper's faulty policy evaluation and top Altmetric score in the Journal of Population Economics underscore the importance of retraction.

Suggested Citation

  • Adema, Joop & Folke, Olle & Rickne, Johanna, 2025. "Re-Analysis of Ciacci, R. (2024). Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden," I4R Discussion Paper Series 226, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:226
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/316398/1/I4R-DP226.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Ciacci, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    3. C de Chaisemartin & X D’HaultfŒuille, 2018. "Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 999-1028.
    4. Riccardo Ciacci, 2025. "Additional evidence on the effects of banning the purchase of sex on cases of rape in Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-13, June.
    5. Kyle Butts, 2023. "Geographic difference-in-discontinuities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 615-619, March.
    6. Matias D. Cattaneo & Nicolas Idrobo & Rocio Titiunik, 2019. "A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations," Papers 1911.09511, arXiv.org.
    7. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2025. "Comment on “Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: evidence from Sweden”," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-2, June.
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