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Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation - A Replication of Müller (2023)

Author

Listed:
  • Gáspár, Attila
  • Sandström, Alexandra
  • Watson, Taylor
  • Wochner, Timo

Abstract

Müller (2023) presents evidence for electoral cycles in macroprudential policy in a sample of 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Consistent with theoretical arguments, the pattern of looser regulation is larger when election outcomes are uncertain and institutions are weak. In this replication, we first conduct a fully successful computational reproduction, using the provided replication package. We then subject the paper's main results to a series of robustness tests, involving measuring the dependent variable differently, bootstrapping standard errors, and applying different specifications of the main estimations. We also use new data, extending the covered time period, and re-examine the results. We find that the main results are robust to our robustness tests, but vanish using newer data. In an additional analysis, we provide suggestive evidence that the original results are based on rather limited variation in the dependent variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Gáspár, Attila & Sandström, Alexandra & Watson, Taylor & Wochner, Timo, 2025. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation - A Replication of Müller (2023)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 204, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Ricardo Correa & Elisabetta Fiorentino & Esther Segalla, 2017. "Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments - A New Cross-Country Database," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 477-503, March.
    3. Zohair Alam & Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Gaston Gelos & Heedon Kang & Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2025. "Digging Deeper—Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(5), pages 1135-1166, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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