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Systemic risk and macro-prudential policies: A credit network-based approach

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  • Catullo, Ermanno
  • Gallegati, Mauro
  • Palestrini, Antonio

Abstract

Assessing systemic risk and defining macro-prudential policies aiming at reducing economic system vulnerability have been at the center of the economic debate of the last years. Credit networks play a crucial role in diffusing and amplifying local shocks, following the network-based financial accelerator approach (Delli Gatti et al., 2010; Battiston et al., 2012), we constructed an agent based model reproducing an artificial credit network populated by heterogeneous firms and banks. Calibrating the model on a sample of firms and banks quoted on Japanese stock-exchange mar- kets from 1980 to 2012, we try to define both early warning indicators of crises and policy precautionary measures based on the analysis of the endogenous dynamics of credit network connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2015. "Systemic risk and macro-prudential policies: A credit network-based approach," FinMaP-Working Papers 39, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    2. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    3. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    4. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    5. Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Leveraged network-based financial accelerator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1626-1640.
    6. Smets, Frank & Collard, Fabrice & Boissay, Frédéric, 2013. "Booms and systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1514, European Central Bank.
    7. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    8. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
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