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Cyclical long-term development of complex technologies: Premature expectations in nanotechnology?

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  • Schmoch, Ulrich
  • Thielmann, Axel

Abstract

After many years of tremendous growth, the patent activities in nanotechnology have slightly decreased and the growth of publication numbers in this field is slowing down. With these patterns nanotechnology exhibits typical characteristics of the cyclical de-velopment of complex science-based technologies which may be labelled double-boom development. However, the decrease of patents should not be interpreted as the end of the growth of nanotechnology, but rather as an intermediate stagnation before a second steep growth. This intermediate period will probably be short compared to other science-based technologies, as cognitive bottlenecks are largely compensated by a strong market pull and substantial public support from the science side.

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  • Schmoch, Ulrich & Thielmann, Axel, 2012. "Cyclical long-term development of complex technologies: Premature expectations in nanotechnology?," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 31, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisidp:31
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    1. Chan-Yuan Wong & Kim-Leng Goh, 2010. "Modeling the behaviour of science and technology: self-propagating growth in the diffusion process," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 669-686, September.
    2. Lynne G. Zucker & Michael R. Darby, 2005. "Socio-economic Impact of Nanoscale Science: Initial Results and NanoBank," NBER Working Papers 11181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ugo Finardi, 2015. "Nanotechnologies for textiles, fabrics and clothing: an overview of the scientific literature on the topic," IRCrES Working Paper 201503, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    2. Shen, Yung-Chi & Wang, Ming-Yeu & Yang, Ya-Chu, 2020. "Discovering the potential opportunities of scientific advancement and technological innovation: A case study of smart health monitoring technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

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