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Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis: Evidence from the CFS survey

Author

Listed:
  • Entorf, Horst
  • Knoll, Christian
  • Sattarova, Liliya

Abstract

The CFS survey covers individual situations of banks and other companies of the financial sector during the financial crisis. This provides a rare possibility to analyze appraisals, expectations and forecast errors of the core sector of the recent turmoil. Following standard ways of aggregating individual survey data, we first present and introduce the CFS survey by comparing CFS indicators of confidence and predicted confidence to ifo and ZEW indicators. The major contribution is the analysis of several indicators of uncertainty. In addition to well established concepts, we introduce innovative measures based on the skewness of forecast errors and on the share of 'no response' replies. Results show that uncertainty indicators fit quite well with pattern of real and financial time series of the time period 2007 to 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Entorf, Horst & Knoll, Christian & Sattarova, Liliya, 2011. "Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis: Evidence from the CFS survey," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adina Popescu & Frank Rafael Smets, 2010. "Uncertainty, Risk-taking, and the Business Cycle in Germany," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 596-626, December.
    2. Steiner, Christian & Groß, Anne & Entorf, Horst, 2009. "Return and Volatility Reactions to Monthly Announcements of Business Cycle Forecasts: An Event Study Based on High-Frequency Data," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-010, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Sentiment; Financial Crisis; Survey Indicator; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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