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Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations

Author

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  • Hess, Dieter
  • Kreutzmann, Daniel
  • Pucker, Oliver

Abstract

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit from this contemporaneous link by differentiating between able and lucky analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records alone are not sufficient to identify profitable recommendations. Only skilled analysts working in a superior environment provide consistently profitable recommendations. The overall profitability of their recommendations is not driven by a post-announcement drift effect. We find that an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy based on the projected - rather than past - earnings accuracy yields substantial excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Dieter & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2011. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1017r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    analysts; portfolio management; profitability of recommendations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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