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Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations

Author

Listed:
  • Hess, Dieter
  • Kreutzmann, Daniel
  • Pucker, Oliver

Abstract

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit from this contemporaneous link by differentiating between able and lucky analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records alone are not sufficient to identify profitable recommendations. Only skilled analysts working in a superior environment provide consistently profitable recommendations. The overall profitability of their recommendations is not driven by a post-announcement drift effect. We find that an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy based on the projected - rather than past - earnings accuracy yields substantial excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Dieter & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2011. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1017r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    2. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2010. "Sell-Side School Ties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1409-1437, August.
    3. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    4. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    5. repec:eee:jocaae:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:18-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    8. Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    9. Loh, Roger K. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2006. "Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 455-483, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    analysts; portfolio management; profitability of recommendations;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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