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Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations

Author

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  • Hess, Dieter E.
  • Kreutzmann, Daniel
  • Pucker, Oliver

Abstract

We document that investors can actually profit from the contemporaneous link between earnings accuracy and recommendation profitability (Loh and Mian (2006)). Differentiating between 'able' and 'lucky' analysts we suggest an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy that yields annual excess returns of 11.5% before transactions costs during our 1994 - 2007 sample period. Rather than past track records analysts' characteristics indicate their ability to identify undervalued stocks. We find that a reputation effect, i.e. higher recommendation announcement returns, is insignificant. This indicates that the ability is real. Able analysts can distinguish between firms that will over- or underperform.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Dieter E. & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2010. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    analysts; trading strategy; profitability of recommendations;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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