IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations


  • Hess, Dieter E.
  • Kreutzmann, Daniel
  • Pucker, Oliver


We document that investors can actually profit from the contemporaneous link between earnings accuracy and recommendation profitability (Loh and Mian (2006)). Differentiating between 'able' and 'lucky' analysts we suggest an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy that yields annual excess returns of 11.5% before transactions costs during our 1994 - 2007 sample period. Rather than past track records analysts' characteristics indicate their ability to identify undervalued stocks. We find that a reputation effect, i.e. higher recommendation announcement returns, is insignificant. This indicates that the ability is real. Able analysts can distinguish between firms that will over- or underperform.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Dieter E. & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2010. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1017

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item


    analysts; trading strategy; profitability of recommendations;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics) or (Pavel Petrov). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.