Stochastic modeling of private equity: an equilibrium based approach to fund valuation
In this paper, we present a new approach to measure the returns of private equity investments based on a stochastic model of the dynamics of a private equity fund. Our stochastic model of a private equity fund consists of two independent stages: the stochastic model of the capital drawdowns and the stochastic model of the capital distributions over a fund's lifetime. Capital distributions are assumed to follow lognormal distributions in our approach. A mean-reverting square-root process is applied to model the rate at which capital is drawn over time. Applying equilibrium intertemporal asset pricing consideration, we are able to derive closed-form solutions for the market value and time-weighted model returns of a private equity fund.
|Date of creation:||2006|
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- Kaserer, Christoph & Wagner, Niklas & Achleitner, Ann-Kristin, 2003. "Managing investment risks of institutional private equity investors: The challenge of illiquidity," CEFS Working Paper Series 2003-01, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
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- Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diller, Christian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2004. "European private equity funds: A cash flow based performance analysis," CEFS Working Paper Series 2004-01, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
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