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What drives cash flow based European private equity returns? Fund inflows, skilled GPs and/or risk?

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  • Kaserer, Christoph
  • Diller, Christian

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of returns generated by European private equity funds. It starts from the presumption that this asset class is characterized by illiquidity, stickiness and segmentation. As a consequence, Gompers and Lerner (2000) have shown that venture deal valuations are driven by overall fund inflows into the industry giving way to the so called 'money chasing deals' phenomenon. It is the aim of this paper to document that this phenomenon also explains a significant part of variation in private equity funds' returns. This is especially true for venture funds, as they are more affected by illiquidity and segmentation than buy-out funds. Actually, the paper presents a WLS-regression model that is able to explain up to 47% of variation in funds' returns. Apart from the importance of fund flows we can also show that market sentiment, the GPs' skills as well as the idiosyncratic risk of a fund have a significant impact on its returns. Moreover, they seem to be unrelated to stock market returns and negatively correlated with the development of the economy as a whole. According to a bootstrapping inference the results seem to be quite stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaserer, Christoph & Diller, Christian, 2004. "What drives cash flow based European private equity returns? Fund inflows, skilled GPs and/or risk?," CEFS Working Paper Series 2004-02, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cefswp:200402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bongaerts, Dion & Charlier, Erwin, 2009. "Private equity and regulatory capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1211-1220, July.
    2. Lossen, Ulrich, 2006. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds: Does Diversification Matter?," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 192, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-591 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rainer Lauterbach & Isabell Welpe & Jan Fertig, 2007. "Performance differentiation: cutting losses and maximizing profits of private equity and venture capital investments," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 45-67, March.
    5. Valkama, Petri & Maula, Markku & Nikoskelainen, Erkki & Wright, Mike, 2013. "Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2378-2391.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    private equity funds; venture capital; financing; WLS; bootstrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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