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A primer on optimal policy projections

Author

Listed:
  • Dengler, Thomas
  • Gerke, Rafael
  • Giesen, Sebastian
  • Kienzler, Daniel
  • Röttger, Joost
  • Scheer, Alexander
  • Wacks, Johannes

Abstract

Optimal policy projections (OPPs) offer a flexible way to derive scenario-based policy recommendations. This note describes how to calculate OPPs for a simple textbook New Keynesian model and provides illustrations for various examples. It also demonstrates the versatility of the approach by showing OPP results for simulations conducted using a medium-scale DSGE model and a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous households.

Suggested Citation

  • Dengler, Thomas & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel & Röttger, Joost & Scheer, Alexander & Wacks, Johannes, 2024. "A primer on optimal policy projections," Technical Papers 01/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:285379
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; macroeconomic projections; New Keynesian models; household heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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