The impact of forward trading on the spot power price volatility with Cournot competition
In this paper, we analyze the influence of forward trading on the volatility of spot power prices, in models where forward contracts are strategic tools used by energy producers to obtain profit security. We define volatility as the variance of the percentage change in spot power prices over a given time interval. As shown in Sapio (2008), volatility is related to stochastic fluctuations in preference and technology fundamentals, and is tuned by the price-elasticity of demand and supply, evaluated at equilibrium. We study two cases. First, we analyze the volatility implications of a model wherein the amount of forward trading is fixed, and producers compete a la Cournot. Fixed forward trading increases spot volatility, because forwards lower the spot price level, corresponding to a less elastic region of a linear demand function. However, if the amount of forward trading is endogenous, as in the two-stage model of Allaz (1992), producers can anticipate the spot market impact of stochastic shocks on fundamentals and 'sterilize' them. As a result, spot price volatility is closer to the value implied by an efficient market. Our theoretical results are illustrated by means of a simple simulation study.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in the Proceedings of EEM08 (doi:10.1109/EEM.2008.4579013).|
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- Magdalena Borgosz-Koczwara & Aleksander Weron & Agnieszka Wyłomańska, 2009. "Stochastic models for bidding strategies on oligopoly electricity market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 579-592, July.
- Sandro Sapio, 2008. "Volatility-price relationships in power exchanges: A demand-supply analysis," LEM Papers Series 2008/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Weron, Rafal, 2000.
"Energy price risk management,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 127-134.
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