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A two-factor model for the electricity forward market

  • Rudiger Kiesel
  • Gero Schindlmayr
  • Reik Borger
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    This paper provides a two-factor model for electricity futures that captures the main features of the market and fits the term structure of volatility. The approach extends the one-factor model of Clewlow and Strickland to a two-factor model and modifies it to make it applicable to the electricity market. We will particularly deal with the existence of delivery periods in the underlying futures. Additionally, the model is calibrated to options on electricity futures and its performance for practical application is discussed.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 279-287

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:279-287
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    1. Juri Hinz & Lutz Von Grafenstein & Michel Verschuere & Martina Wilhelm, 2005. "Pricing electricity risk by interest rate methods," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60.
    2. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
    3. Damiano Brigo & Jan Liinev, 2005. "On the distributional distance between the lognormal LIBOR and swap market models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 433-442.
    4. Levy, Edmond, 1992. "Pricing European average rate currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 474-491, October.
    5. Les Clewlow & Chris Strickland, 1999. "Valuing Energy Options in a One Factor Model Fitted to Forward Prices," Research Paper Series 10, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    7. Geman, Hélyette, 2005. "Commodities and commodity derivatives : modeling and pricing for agriculturals, metals and energy," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/607, Paris Dauphine University.
    8. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    9. Iivo Vehvilainen, 2002. "Basics of electricity derivative pricing in competitive markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 45-60.
    10. Ventosa, Mariano & Baillo, Alvaro & Ramos, Andres & Rivier, Michel, 2005. "Electricity market modeling trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 897-913, May.
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