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The Dynamics of Polarisation and Revolutions

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  • Qin, Ruilang

    (Warwick University)

Abstract

Political polarisation has become a prevalent phenomenon in the past decades. Parallelly, citizens have increasingly resorted to collective actions to demand change, resulting in incidents such as the Jan 6 US Capitol riot. Evidence suggests that such public remonstrations exacerbated the extent of opinion divergence. This paper therefore presents a model that explains the dynamic connection between political polarisation and collective actions. In the setup, voting, abstention, and participation in collective actions are novelly modelled as individual components of a citizen’s political toolkit. With endogenous voter preferences alone, polarisation has an exacerbating but limited effect on the level of collective actions. In turn, collective actions accelerate the process of polarisation for the election-losing partisans, creating asymmetry in the voter distribution. It is only when combined with strategic behaviour of the parties that polarisation may lead to substantially intensified collective actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Ruilang, 2024. "The Dynamics of Polarisation and Revolutions," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 77, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:77
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/wmesp/manage/77_-_qin.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
    2. Ebonya Washington & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2009. "Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Political Attitudes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 86-111, January.
    3. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
    4. Shadmehr, Mehdi & Bernhardt, Dan, 2011. "Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals, and Punishment Dilemmas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-851, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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