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Political Influence Through Microtargeting

Author

Listed:
  • Eldar, Michael

    (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)

  • Hidir, Sinem

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

We model the way in which political microtargeting induces voters to learn about their own preferences. This differs from past literature on political influence which focuses on bias. We find that the optimal strategy based on previously estimated parameters is to target groups of voters favoring one’s opponents. More generally, log-concave cost of voting distributions can give rise to non-convex sets being targeted : weak supporters of the politician and strong supporters of the opponent. Further, we provide a novel analysis of the effects of micro-targeting on turnout. We find a sense in which lower costs of voting encourage negative campaigning.

Suggested Citation

  • Eldar, Michael & Hidir, Sinem, 2025. "Political Influence Through Microtargeting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1592, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1592
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2025/twerp_1592-hidir.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregorio Curello & Ludvig Sinander, 2024. "The Comparative Statics of Persuasion," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_564, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Jörg L Spenkuch & David Toniatti, 2018. "Political Advertising and Election Results," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1981-2036.
    3. Jeffrey S. Banks & John Duggan, 2005. "Probabilistic Voting in the Spatial Model of Elections: The Theory of Office-motivated Candidates," Studies in Choice and Welfare, in: David Austen-Smith & John Duggan (ed.), Social Choice and Strategic Decisions, pages 15-56, Springer.
    4. J. Duggan & C. Martinelli, 2011. "A Spatial Theory of Media Slant and Voter Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 640-666.
    5. Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George & Stalinski, Mateusz, 2022. "Do social media ads matter for political behavior? A field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
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