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A Note on the McGrattan and Prescott (2003) Adjustments and the Equity Premium Puzzle

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  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (USC)

Abstract

McGrattan and Prescott (2003) argue that the average equity premium is less than one percent when the annual data used in the computation are adjusted in certain ways: equity returns reduced by subtracting diversification costs and taxes on dividend yields, and debt yields are raised by using long-term debt (instead of 90-day T-Bills) and ignoring the 1935-1960 period of government regulation of the financial sector. This note takes the adjusted measurements proposed by McGrattan and Prescott (2003) and subjects them to statistical tests in an attempt to examine the equity premium puzzle. The findings suggest that using their series solves the `average equity premium' puzzle but the `low risk-free rate' and `excess volatility' puzzles remain as challenges to standard theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2004. "A Note on the McGrattan and Prescott (2003) Adjustments and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0402009, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402009
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win2000; pages: 12
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0402/0402009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    3. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May.
    4. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    6. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January.
    9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
    11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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