How Long Can the U.S. Consumers Carry the economy on Their Shoulders?
The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope in the near future, but if the economy were to stumble, the fragile consumer might contribute to turning the downturn into a deep and protracted recession. There are two risks to the continuation of consumer resilience. The first arises from the fact that this has been a jobless recovery. The second arises from a growing personal sector imbalance that is fueled by the growing property bubble. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, but the long-term one is bleak.
|Date of creation:||05 Jun 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - MS Word; prepared on PC; to print on HP/PostScript; pages: 41; figures: included|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1992.
"How does future income affect current consumption?,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carroll, Christopher D, 1994. "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 111-47, February.
- Angus Deaton, 1989.
"Saving and Liquidity Constraints,"
NBER Working Papers
3196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981.
"The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-32, August.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1980. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P. Arestis & E. Karakitsos, 2003. "How Far Can U.S. Equity Prices Fall Under Asset and Debt Deflation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_368, Levy Economics Institute.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989.
"Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfection: An International Comparison," CEPR Discussion Papers 244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2001.
"The lifecycle model of consumption and saving,"
IFS Working Papers
W01/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2000. "The Life Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 28, McMaster University.
- Stephen P. Zeldes, .
"Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
16-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April.
- Stephen Zeldes, . "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring.
- Wynne Godley, 1996. "Money, Finance and National Income Determination: An Integrated Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_167, Levy Economics Institute.
- Don Kohn, 2003. "The strength in consumer durables and housing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
- George-Marios Angeletos, 2001. "The Hyberbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 47-68, Summer.
- Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Anwar Shaikh & Claudio H. dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2002. "Is Personal Debt Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 02-11, Levy Economics Institute.
- Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0306003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.