IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0306003.html

How Long Can the U.S. Consumers Carry the economy on Their Shoulders?

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Arestis

    (The Levy Economics Institute)

  • Elias Karakitsos

    (Trafalgar Asset Managers)

Abstract

The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope in the near future, but if the economy were to stumble, the fragile consumer might contribute to turning the downturn into a deep and protracted recession. There are two risks to the continuation of consumer resilience. The first arises from the fact that this has been a jobless recovery. The second arises from a growing personal sector imbalance that is fueled by the growing property bubble. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, but the long-term one is bleak.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Elias Karakitsos, 2003. "How Long Can the U.S. Consumers Carry the economy on Their Shoulders?," General Economics and Teaching 0306003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0306003
    Note: Type of Document - MS Word; prepared on PC; to print on HP/PostScript; pages: 41; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0306/0306003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0306/0306003.doc.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0306/0306003.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    2. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring.
    3. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    5. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Anwar Shaikh & Claudio H. dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2002. "Is Personal Debt Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 02-11, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2001. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    7. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    8. Christopher D. Carroll, 1994. "How does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 111-147.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, January.
    10. Wynne Godley, 1996. "Money, Finance and National Income Determination: An Integrated Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_167, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos & David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman & Stephen Weinberg, 2001. "The Hyberbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 47-68, Summer.
    12. P. Arestis & E. Karakitsos, 2003. "How Far Can U.S. Equity Prices Fall Under Asset and Debt Deflation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_368, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    14. Donald L. Kohn, 2003. "The strength in consumer durables and housing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    15. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    16. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-136, February.
    17. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1976. "Does fiscal policy matter? : A correction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1-2), pages 183-184.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    2. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Joint Model of Labor Supply and Consumption Decisions Under Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0196, Econometric Society.
    3. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, and Annuity Decisions under Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers 00-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    4. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    6. Rajat Deb, 2016. "Determinants of Savings in Sukanya Samriddhi Account: Evidence from Tripura," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 120-140, July.
    7. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    8. Jim Malley & Hassan Molana, 2002. "The Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model: A Reinterpretation and Supporting Evidence," Working Papers 2002_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Cheng K. Wu, 1997. "New Result in Theory of Consumption: Changes in Savings and Income Growth," Macroeconomics 9706007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    11. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    12. Bram De Rock & Bart Capéau, 2015. "The implications of household size and children for life-cycle saving," Working Paper Research 286, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    14. Madsen, Jakob B. & Mcaleer, Michael, 2000. "Direct Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis under Uncertainty, Inflationary Expectations and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, April.
    15. Gert Peersman & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2008. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(299), pages 514-523, August.
    16. Dovchinsuren, Khaliun, 2023. "How does excessive volatility of consumption vary across countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, November.
    18. Daria Pignalosa, 2021. "The Euler Equation Approach: Critical Implications of Recent Developments in the Theory of Intertemporal Choice," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 15(1), pages 1-43, June.
    19. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    20. repec:idn:jimfjn:v:4:y:2018:i:1f:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:43:y:2012:i:5:p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Kelley, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, "undated". "Consumption Patterns Over Pay Periods," Economic Research Papers 269469, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0306003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.