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Riding the Yield Curve: Diversification of Strategies

  • David S. Bieri

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Ludwig B. Chincarini

    (Georgetown University)

Riding the yield curve, the fixed-income strategy of purchasing a longer-dated security and selling before maturity, has long been a popular means to achieve excess returns compared to buying-and-holding, despite its implicit violations of market efficiency and the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper looks at the historic excess returns of different strategies across three countries and proposes several statistical and macro-based trading rules which seem to enhance returns even more. While riding based on the Taylor Rule works well even for longer investment horizons, our empirical results indicate that, using expectations implied by Fed funds futures, excess returns can only be increased over short horizons. Furthermore, we demonstrate that duration-neutral strategies are superior to standard riding on a risk- adjusted basis. Overall, our evidence stands in contrast to the pure expectations hypothesis and points to the existence of risk premia which may be exploited consistently.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/fin/papers/0410/0410002.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0410002.

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Length: 77 pages
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0410002
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 77
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-37, May.
  2. Tao Wu, 2001. "Monetary policy and the slope factor in empirical term structure estimations," Working Paper Series 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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