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Riding the Yield Curve: Diversification of Strategies

Author

Listed:
  • David S. Bieri

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Ludwig B. Chincarini

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

Riding the yield curve, the fixed-income strategy of purchasing a longer-dated security and selling before maturity, has long been a popular means to achieve excess returns compared to buying-and-holding, despite its implicit violations of market efficiency and the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper looks at the historic excess returns of different strategies across three countries and proposes several statistical and macro-based trading rules which seem to enhance returns even more. While riding based on the Taylor Rule works well even for longer investment horizons, our empirical results indicate that, using expectations implied by Fed funds futures, excess returns can only be increased over short horizons. Furthermore, we demonstrate that duration-neutral strategies are superior to standard riding on a risk- adjusted basis. Overall, our evidence stands in contrast to the pure expectations hypothesis and points to the existence of risk premia which may be exploited consistently.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Bieri & Ludwig B. Chincarini, 2004. "Riding the Yield Curve: Diversification of Strategies," Finance 0410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0410002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 77
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0410/0410002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-537, May.
    2. Tao Wu, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Slope Factors in Empirical Term Structure Estimations," Working Paper Series 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, October.
    2. Lenz, Rainer, 2010. "Analyse der Renditestrukturkurve: Zur Laufzeitenstruktur von Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen [Yield curve analysis]," MPRA Paper 26621, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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