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Monetary Policy and the Slope Factors in Empirical Term Structure Estimations

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  • Tao Wu

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical relationship between the movement of the slope factor in term structure of nominal interest rates and exogenous monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. after 1982. Using first a six-variable VAR model and then a GMM estimation model of the "Taylor rule," I estimate the exogenous monetary-policy shocks implied by each of them in the U.S. during this period. Meanwhile, a two-factor model is used to extract the underlying slope factor of the term structure. Results from the correlation study suggest that there is strong correlation between the slope factor and the exogenous monetary-policy shocks. Moreover, monetary-policy shocks can explain a large part of variability of the slope factor. This study provides strong evidence in support of Knez, Litterman and Scheinkman (1994)’s conjecture on the relation between the slope factor and the Federal Reserve policy, and is also consistent with the results in Wu (2001a)’s general-equilibrium based simulation study.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Wu, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Slope Factors in Empirical Term Structure Estimations," Working Paper Series 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2002-07
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2002-07
    Note: PDF date: This draft: March 10, 2001. This version: August 23, 2001.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "Analysing the spillover effects of the South African Reserve Banks bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11025, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Mira Farka & Adrian R. Fleissig, 2013. "The impact of FOMC statements on the volatility of asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1287-1301, April.
    4. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    5. David S. Bieri & Ludwig B. Chincarini, 2004. "Riding the Yield Curve: Diversification of Strategies," Finance 0410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "AnalysingthespillovereffectsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBanksbondpurchaseprogramme," Working Papers 11039, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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