IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Role of Speculation in Real Estate Cycles

Listed author(s):
  • Stephen Malpezzi
  • Susan M. Wachter

Our study investigates the role of speculation in real estate cycles. We find that even a simple model of lagged supply response to price changes and speculation is sufficient to generate real estate cycles. Second, the volatility of prices - the biggest purported downside of "speculation" - is strongly related to supply conditions. Even more interestingly, the effect of speculation itself depends on supply conditions. Markets with more responsive regulatory environments, or less natural constraint (from physical geography), will experience less volatility as well as less behavior characterized as speculation. Demand conditions in general, and speculation in particular, can contribute to a boom and bust cycle in housing and real estate markets - but the effects of speculation appear to be dominated by the effect of the price elasticity of supply. In fact, the largest effects of speculation are only observed when supply is inelastic. Thus effective policies will focus on improving the efficiency of the supply of developable land, and real estate generally, including the development of an appropriate regulatory framework for real estate.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania in its series Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers with number 401.

in new window

Date of creation:
Handle: RePEc:wop:pennzl:401
Contact details of provider: Postal:
256 South 37th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6330

Phone: 215.898.9687
Fax: 215.573.2220
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:pennzl:401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.