Protecting Forests in the Congo Basin : An Empirical Basis for Performance-Linked Financing for the Republic of Congo

The Republic of Congo, a country with extensive tropical forests and low deforestation rates, needs to balance export-driven development, especially through timber production, and sustainable forest management. Despite national commitments to conserve and restore forests, such efforts remain underfunded. Empirical analysis shows that historical deforestation is closely tied to timber and agricultural export prices, the real effective exchange rate, dry weather, and demographic trends. Under a business-as-usual scenario, deforestation could rise sharply without effective policy interventions. Sangha and Likouala provinces, which are rich in undisturbed forests and new concessions, are particularly at risk. Past oil-driven revenues have contributed to lower deforestation by shifting economic focus away from land-intensive activities; however, transitioning from oil dependency requires diversification into the forest sector which in turn requires strengthening sustainable logging practices and more robust institutional frameworks. This research provides a model-based benchmark to define key performance indicators for deforestation reductions and to set feasible and ambitious targets for protecting forests while pursuing diversified economic growth. Transparent performance indicators along with feasible, but ambitious targets are a critical for results-based financing instruments. They are critical to unlock public and private capital to support economic growth and conserve the standing forests. This model has relevance to the other Congo Basin and tropical forest countries with extensive forests.