IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2026-33.html

Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Maria Boros

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Anna Małgorzata Bartczak

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
    University of Warsaw, Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies)

Abstract

Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implementation credibility). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1,100 Polish urban residents, we examine how policy scenario credibility shapes preferences for air pollution mitigation reducing risks from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We contrast domain experts and artificial intelligence (AI) with no-source control as information sources on policy outcome projections. We find that epistemic and implementation credibility are strongly correlated; thus, we treat credibility as a single variable affecting preferences. Using a hybrid mixed logit (HMXL) model, we demonstrate that higher perceived credibility increases programme support, lowers cost sensitivity, and thus elevates willingness to pay (WTP) for the programme and morbidity risk reduction. We find no evidence that the information source influences preferences or scenario credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Maria Boros & Anna Małgorzata Bartczak, 2026. "Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution," Working Papers 2026-33, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/8a8dd6f3-f4c8-4cd8-aa15-1849554f6f80/4282
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoffmann, Bridget Lynn & Scartascini, Carlos & Cafferata, Fernando G., 2022. "How can we improve air pollution? Try increasing trust first," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 393-413, October.
    2. Jin, Yana & Andersson, Henrik & Zhang, Shiqiu, 2020. "Do preferences to reduce health risks related to air pollution depend on illness type? Evidence from a choice experiment in Beijing, China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Krupnick, Alan & Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron & Heintzelman, Martin, 2002. "Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 161-186, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yanying & Jin, Yana & Lin, Huan & Wan, Wei & Zhang, Shiqiu, 2024. "Valuing mortality risk reductions in a fast-developing society: A meta-analysis of stated preference studies in China from 1998 to 2019," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    2. Muhammad Rafiq & Mir Kalan Shah, 2010. "The Value of Reduced Risk of Injury and Deaths in Pakistan—Using Actual and Perceived Risk Estimates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 823-837.
    3. Ximing Chen & Jie Shang & Muhammad Zada & Shagufta Zada & Xueqiang Ji & Heesup Han & Antonio Ariza-Montes & Jesús Ramírez-Sobrino, 2021. "Health Is Wealth: Study on Consumer Preferences and the Willingness to Pay for Ecological Agricultural Product Traceability Technology: Evidence from Jiangxi Province China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Xue, Hong & Mainville, Denise Y. & You, Wen & Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr., 2009. "Nutrition Knowledge, Sensory Characteristics and Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Pasture-Fed Beef," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49277, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Ateesha Mohamed & A. Hauber & Maureen Neary, 2011. "Patient Benefit-Risk Preferences for Targeted Agents in the Treatment of Renal Cell Carcinoma," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 29(11), pages 977-988, November.
    6. James Hammitt & Jin-Tan Liu, 2004. "Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 73-95, January.
    7. Liu, Mengyu & Jin, Yana & Hu, Wuyang, 2026. "Valuing Sustainability in China's Pork Market: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404463, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Henrik Andersson & James Hammitt & Gunnar Lindberg & Kristian Sundström, 2013. "Erratum to: Willingness to Pay and Sensitivity to Time Framing: A Theoretical Analysis and an Application on Car Safety," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(3), pages 457-457, November.
    9. Alberini, Anna & Ščasný, Milan, 2018. "The benefits of avoiding cancer (or dying from cancer): Evidence from a four- country study," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 249-262.
    10. Nam, Kyung-Min & Selin, Noelle E. & Reilly, John M. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2010. "Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe: A CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5059-5071, September.
    11. Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2001. "Cost-Effective Reduction of NOx Emissions from Electricity Generation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-00-55-rev, Resources for the Future.
    12. Mikael Svensson, 2009. "Precautionary behavior and willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction: Searching for the expected relationship," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 65-85, August.
    13. Chris Dockins & Robin R. Jenkins & Nicole Owens & Nathalie B. Simon & Lanelle Bembenek Wiggins, 2002. "Valuation of Childhood Risk Reduction: The Importance of Age, Risk Preferences, and Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 335-346, April.
    14. Lars Hein & Pete Roberts & Lucia Gonzalez, 2016. "Valuing a Statistical Life Year in Relation to Clean Air," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Blackman, Allen & Qin, Ping & Yang, Jun, 2020. "How costly are driving restrictions? Contingent valuation evidence from Beijing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Fredrik Carlsson & Dinky Daruvala & Henrik Jaldell, 2012. "Do administrators have the same priorities for risk reductions as the general public?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 79-95, August.
    17. Sujitra Vassanadumrongdee & Shunji Matsuoka & Hiroaki Shirakawa, 2004. "Meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies on air pollution-related morbidity risks," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(1), pages 11-47, March.
    18. Jaldell Henrik, 2013. "Cost-benefit analyses of sprinklers in nursing homes for elderly," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 209-235, August.
    19. Loomis, John & Sanchez, Jose & Gonzalez-Caban, Armando & Holmes, Thomas, "undated". "Are WTP Estimates for Wildfire Risk Reductions Transferrable from Coast to Coast? Results of a Choice Experiment in California and Florida," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 202661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Dennis Guignet & Anna Alberini, 2015. "Can Property Values Capture Changes in Environmental Health Risks? Evidence from a Stated Preference Study in Italy and the United Kingdom," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 501-517, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jacek Rapacz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.