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Expected optimal feedback with Time-Varying Parameters

Author

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  • M.P. Tucci
  • D.A. Kendrick
  • H.M. Amman

Abstract

In this paper we derive the closed loop form of the Expected Optimal Feedback rule, sometimes called passive learning stochastic control, with time varying parameters. As such this paper extends the work of Kendrick (1981,2002, Chapter 6) where parameters are assumed to vary randomly around a known constant mean. Furthermore, we show that the cautionary myopic rule in Beck and Wieland (2002) model, a test bed for comparing various stochastic optimizations approaches, can be cast into this framework and can be treated as a special case of this solution.

Suggested Citation

  • M.P. Tucci & D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman, 2011. "Expected optimal feedback with Time-Varying Parameters," Working Papers 11-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1976. "Optimal Stabilization Policies for Stochastic Linear Systems: The Case of Correlated Multiplicative and Additive Disturbances," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 191-194.
    2. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
    3. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Effect of Uncertainty on Optimal Control Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 632-645, October.
    4. Chow, Gregory C, 1975. "A Solution to Optimal Control of Linear Systems with Unknown Parameters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 338-345, August.
    5. MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1975. "An Adaptive Learning Rule for Multiperiod Decision Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(5-6), pages 893-906, Sept.-Nov.
    6. Elizabeth Chase MacRae, 1972. "Linear Decision with Experimentation," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 4, pages 437-447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tucci, Marco P., 1997. "Adaptive control in the presence of time-varying parameters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-47, November.
    8. Granger Clive W.J., 2008. "Non-Linear Models: Where Do We Go Next - Time Varying Parameter Models?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, September.
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1975. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 51-80, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tucci, Marco P. & Kendrick, David A. & Amman, Hans M., 2010. "The parameter set in an adaptive control Monte Carlo experiment: Some considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1531-1549, September.
    2. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal experimentation; stochastic optimization; time-varying parameters; expected optimal feedback;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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