A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology
Innovations are known to arrive more highly clustered than if they werepurely random, and their rate of arrival has been increasing nearlyexponentially for several centuries. Their distribution of importance ishighly skewed and appears to obey a power law or lognormal distribution.Technological change has been seen by many scholars as followingtechnological trajectories and being subject to ‘paradigm’ shifts fromtime to time. To address these empirical observations, we introduce acomplex technology space based on percolation theory. This space issearched randomly in local neighborhoods of the current best-practicefrontier. Numerical simulations demonstrate that with increasing radiusof search, the probability of becoming deadlocked declines and the meanrate of innovation increases until a plateau is reached. Thedistribution of innovation sizes is highly skewed and heavy tailed. Forpercolation probabilities near the critical value, it seems to resemblean infinite-variance Pareto distribution in the tails. For highervalues, the lognormal appears to be preferred.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhi-Feng Huang, 2000. "Self-organized model for information spread in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0004314, arXiv.org.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1993.
"Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1982. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
- repec:dgr:tuecis:0016 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nelson, Richard R. & Winter, Sidney G., 1993.
"In search of useful theory of innovation,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 108-108, April.
- Dietmar Harhoff & Francis Narin & F. M. Scherer & Katrin Vopel, 1999. "Citation Frequency And The Value Of Patented Inventions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 511-515, August.
- F. M. Scherer & Dietmar Harhoff & J, rg Kukies, 2000. "Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 175-200.
- Manuel Trajtenberg, 1990. "A Penny for Your Quotes: Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 172-187, Spring.
- Vega-Redondo, F., 1990.
"Technological Change and Path Dependence: A Co-Evolutionary Model on a Directed Graph,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
145.90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1994. "Technological Change and Path Dependence: A Co-evolutionary Model on a Directed Graph," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 59-80, March.
- Grassberger, Peter & Yi-Cheng Zhang,, 1996. "“Self-organized” formulation of standard percolation phenomena," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 169-179.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June.
- F. M. Scherer, 1998. "The Size Distribution of Profits from Innovation," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 49-50, pages 495-516.
- Goldenberg, J & Libai, B & Solomon, S & Jan, N & Stauffer, D, 2000. "Marketing percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 335-347.
- Scherer, F. M. & Harhoff, Dietmar, 2000. "Technology policy for a world of skew-distributed outcomes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 559-566, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2002032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.