The identification of important innovations using tail estimators
International differences in economic performance are often attributed to differences in innovative performance. Much empirical work supports this contention, but problems in quantifying innovative output prevent researchers from drawing a clear picture. Innovations are very heterogeneous regarding their importance, with only very few innovations yielding substantial returns. Citation frequencies are one measure of the value of innovations. We use a recently introduced technique based on results from Extreme Value Theory to estimate the characteristics of the tail of the distribution of citations. We identify important innovations as those that receive a number of citations higher than the ‘cutoff point’ of the tail of the distributions of citations. The data come from the NBER Patent-Citations Database. We provide estimates of the proportions of important patents for 31 technological categories and discuss emerging patterns. Possible implications for technology policy and innovation management are also drawn.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:||Feb 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.uu.nl/faculty/geosciences/EN/research/institutesandgroups/researchinstitutes/copernicusinstitute/research/Innovation/Pages/default.aspx |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Lux, 2001.
"The limiting extremal behaviour of speculative returns: an analysis of intra-daily data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-315.
- Lux, T., . "The Limiting Extremal Behaviour of Speculative Returns: An Analysis of Intra-Daily Data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," Discussion Paper Serie B 436, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- repec:dgr:tuecis:0417 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:dgr:tuecis:0306 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rosenberg, Nathan, 1969. "The Direction of Technological Change: Inducement Mechanisms and Focusing Devices," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, Part I Oc.
- Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
- Bulat Sanditov, 2005. "Patent Citations, the Value of Innovations and Path-Dependency," KITeS Working Papers 177, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2005.
- Drees, Holger & Kaufmann, Edgar, 1998. "Selecting the optimal sample fraction in univariate extreme value estimation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 149-172, July.
- Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001.
"The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools,"
NBER Working Papers
8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, B. & Jaffe, A. & Trajtenberg, M., 2001. "The NBER Patent Citations Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," Papers 2001-29, Tel Aviv.
- Hall, Bronwyn H & Jaffe, Adam B & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citations Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," CEPR Discussion Papers 3094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jaffe, A.B. & Trajtenberg, M., 1992.
"Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations,"
14-92, Tel Aviv.
- Jaffe, Adam B & Trajtenberg, Manuel & Henderson, Rebecca, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-98, August.
- Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1992. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," NBER Working Papers 3993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haupt, Reinhard & Kloyer, Martin & Lange, Marcus, 2007. "Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 387-398, April.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2003. "Brewing the future: stylized facts about innovation and their confrontation with a percolation model," Working Papers 03.06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
- Akkermans, Dirk & Castaldi, Carolina & Los, Bart, 2007. "Do â€˜Liberal Market Economiesâ€™ Really Innovate More Radically than â€˜Coordinated Market Economiesâ€™? Hall & Soskice Reconsidered," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-91, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
- Manuel Trajtenberg & Adam B. Jaffe & Michael S. Fogarty, 2000. "Knowledge Spillovers and Patent Citations: Evidence from a Survey of Inventors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 215-218, May.
- Bronwyn H. Hall & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2004. "Uncovering GPTS with Patent Data," NBER Working Papers 10901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dahlin, Kristina B. & Behrens, Dean M., 2005. "When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 717-737, June.
- F. M. Scherer & Dietmar Harhoff & J, rg Kukies, 2000. "Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 175-200.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uis:wpaper:0807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Floortje Alkemade)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.