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Long Waves of Capitalist Development : An Empirical Investigation

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  • Deepankar Basu

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst)

Abstract

In this paper, I investigate the phenomenon of long waves of capitalist development from two perspectives. First, I look for evidence of long waves of economic growth taking the dates for turning points of long waves from the historical literature (Mandel, 1995). Using historical data for 20 capitalist countries from the Maddison-Project, I find that the growth rate of real per capita GDP (and real GDP) is significantly higher in the upswing than in the downswing phase of long waves. I interpret this as evidence of long waves of economic activity. Second, I revisit the method used by Gordon, Weisskopf and Bowles (1983) to identify long waves, using historical data on the U.S. economy from Dumenil and Levy (2013). I use this definition of long waves to test their hypothesis that business cycle downturns are ‘reproductive’ during the upswing phase and ‘non- reproductive’ during the downswing phase of long waves. I find evidence in support of the hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepankar Basu, 2016. "Long Waves of Capitalist Development : An Empirical Investigation," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2016-15, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2016-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weisskopf, Thomas E, 1979. "Marxian Crisis Theory and the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 341-378, December.
    2. Gordon, David M & Weisskopf, Thomas E & Bowles, Samuel, 1983. "Long Swings and the Nonreproductive Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 152-157, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capitalism; long waves; expected profitability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B14 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian
    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian

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