Un análisis de comportamiento a nivel de agente de la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del BCU
Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation expectation survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The main findings indicate: i) a low predictive power of the analysts surveyed in the 12-month horizon; ii) a convergence of the individual forecasts to the released monthly median iii) an overweight of the inflation target ceiling and the dynamics of the inflation, and iv) a underweight of monetary policy instruments. With respect to the evidence of rationality, we find the partial use of available information and in some cases, there is a systematic bias.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (598) 2410-6449
Fax: (598) 2410-6450
Web page: http://www.fcs.edu.uy/subcategoria.php?SubCatId=48&CatId=53
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009.
"What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
- Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations,"
1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1990.
"Real Rigidities and the Non-neutrality of Money,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203, April.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp..
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2009.
"Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7,"
Jena Economic Research Papers
2009-091, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
- Bibiana Lanzilotta & Adrián Fernández & Gonzalo Zunino, 2008. "Evaluación de las proyecciones de analistas: la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del banco central," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-25, enero-mar.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Irene Musio)or (Héctor Pastori)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.