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A Variant of AIC Using Bayesian Marginal Likelihood

Author

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  • Yuki Kawakubo

    (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Tatsuya Kubokawa

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Muni S. Srivastava

    (Department of Statistics, University of Toronto)

Abstract

We propose an information criterion which measures the prediction risk of the predictive density based on the Bayesian marginal likelihood from a frequentist point of view. We derive the criteria for selecting variables in linear regression models by putting the prior on the regression coefficients, and discuss the relationship between the proposed criteria and other related ones. There are three advantages of our method. Firstly, this is a compromise between the frequentist and Bayesian standpoint because it evaluates the frequentist's risk of the Bayesian model. Thus it is less in uenced by prior misspeci cation. Secondly, non-informative improper prior can be also used for constructing the criterion. When the uniform prior is assumed on the regression coefficients, the resulting criterion is identical to the residual information criterion (RIC) of Shi and Tsai (2002). Lastly, the criteria have the consistency property for selecting the true model. --

Suggested Citation

  • Yuki Kawakubo & Tatsuya Kubokawa & Muni S. Srivastava, 2015. "A Variant of AIC Using Bayesian Marginal Likelihood," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-971, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf971
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2015/2015cf971.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomohiro Ando, 2007. "Bayesian predictive information criterion for the evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(2), pages 443-458.
    2. Srivastava, Muni S. & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2010. "Conditional information criteria for selecting variables in linear mixed models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(9), pages 1970-1980, October.
    3. Hamparsum Bozdogan, 1987. "Model selection and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC): The general theory and its analytical extensions," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 345-370, September.
    4. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    5. Casella, George & Moreno, Elias, 2006. "Objective Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 157-167, March.
    6. Peide Shi & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 2002. "Regression model selection—a residual likelihood approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 237-252, May.
    7. Florin Vaida & Suzette Blanchard, 2005. "Conditional Akaike information for mixed-effects models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(2), pages 351-370, June.
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