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Essays on model averaging and political economics

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  • Wang, W.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple sources of uncertainty generated from model specification, estimation, and measurement choices. It examines the effects of different growth theories taking into account the measurement problem in the growth regression. Chapter 3 addresses the issue of prediction under model uncertainty, and proposes a weighted average least squares (WALS) prediction procedure that is not conditional on the selected model. Taking both model and error uncertainty into account, it also proposes an appropriate estimate of the variance of the WALS predictor. Chapter 4 focuses on the interplay among resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth in China, using two different measures of resource abundance. It employs a functional-coefficient model to capture the nonlinear interaction effect of institutional quality, and panel-data time-varying coefficient model to describe the dynamic effect of natural resources. Chapter 5 considers a dark side of fiscal decentralization. It models and empirically tests a dress-up contest caused by fiscal decentralization, and shows that the dress-up contest can lead to a social welfare loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, W., 2013. "Essays on model averaging and political economics," Other publications TiSEM 2e45376b-749e-4464-aba7-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:2e45376b-749e-4464-aba7-f5a2e8894c38
    Note: Dissertation
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    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/portal/files/1542540/thesis_print_wwd.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zissimos, Ben & Wooders, Myrna, 2008. "Public good differentiation and the intensity of tax competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1105-1121, June.
    2. Yang, Yuhong, 2004. "Combining Forecasting Procedures: Some Theoretical Results," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 176-222, February.
    3. Xiaobo Zhang & Li Xing & Shenggen Fan & Xiaopeng Luo, 2008. "Resource abundance and regional development in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(1), pages 7-29, January.
    4. Wan, Alan T. K. & Zou, Guohua, 2003. "Optimal critical values of pre-tests when estimating the regression error variance: analytical findings under a general loss structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 165-196, May.
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