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How Informative are the Unpredictable Components of Earnings Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Bert de Bruijn

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the unpredictable components, which may be viewed as the personal expertise of the earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track records, it is possible to predict the future track record of individual forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "How Informative are the Unpredictable Components of Earnings Forecasts?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-032/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings Forecasts; Earnings Announcements; Financial Markets; Financial Analysts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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