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Weak & Strong Financial Fragility

Author

Listed:
  • J.L. Geluk

    (The Petroleum Institute)

  • L. de Haan

    (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)

  • C.G. de Vries

    (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)

Abstract

The stability of the financial system at higher loss levels is either characterized by asymptotic dependence or asymptotic independence. If asymptotically independent, the dependency, when present, eventually dies out completely at the more extreme quantiles, as in case of the multivariate normal distribution. Given that financial service firms' equity returns depend linearly on the risk drivers, we show that the marginals' distributions maximum domain of attraction determines the type of systemic (in-)stability. A scale for the amount of dependency at high loss lovels is designed. This permits a characterization of systemic risk inherent to different financial network structures. The theory also suggests the functional form of the economically relevant limit copulas.

Suggested Citation

  • J.L. Geluk & L. de Haan & C.G. de Vries, 2007. "Weak & Strong Financial Fragility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-023/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. De Vries, C.G., 2005. "The simple economics of bank fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 803-825, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Krajina, A. & Segers, J., 2011. "An M-Estimator for Tail Dependence in Arbitrary Dimensions," Discussion Paper 2011-013, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Tomas Fiala & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Ailing Mothers, Healthy Daughters? Contagion in the Central European Banking Sector," Working Papers IES 2014/10, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2014.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Implementing the Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation and Supervision," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Eric J. Pentecost & Tom Weyman-Jones (ed.), The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Michael Falk & Diana Tichy, 2012. "Asymptotic conditional distribution of exceedance counts: fragility index with different margins," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 64(5), pages 1071-1085, October.
    5. Zhengjun Zhang, 2009. "On approximating max-stable processes and constructing extremal copula functions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 89-114, February.
    6. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Krajina, A. & Segers, J.J.J., 2007. "A Method of Moments Estimator of Tail Dependence," Other publications TiSEM 6ee60ab8-3c01-4bd9-aa5e-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2017. "Modeling Dependence in High Dimensions With Factor Copulas," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 139-154, January.
    8. Krajina, A., 2010. "An M-estimator of multivariate tail dependence," Other publications TiSEM 66518e07-db9a-4446-81be-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Falk, Michael & Hofmann, Martin, 2012. "Sojourn times and the fragility index," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 1110-1128.
    10. Herrera, R. & Eichler, S., 2011. "Extreme dependence with asymmetric thresholds: Evidence for the European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2916-2930, November.
    11. Fiala, Tomas & Havranek, Tomas, 2017. "The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 108-121.
    12. Carlos Castro Iragorri & Stijn Ferrari, 2010. "Measuring the systemic importance of financial institutions using market information," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 8(1), pages 127-141, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Stability; Multivariate Extreme Value Analysis; Asymptotic (In-)dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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