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How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method

Author

Listed:
  • H. Peter Boswijk

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robustbootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicatesthe practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war USindustrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Peter Boswijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Boswijk, Peter, 1993. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests on Long-Run Parameters," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(1), pages 137-144, February.
    5. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
    6. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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