IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stz/wpaper/eth-rc-13-005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Refined Risk Assessment and Banking Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Gersbach
  • Jan Wenzelburger

Abstract

Current banking regulatory frameworks are based on the belief that refined assessment of credit risks improves banking stability. This paper investigates this claim in a general setting by comparing a simple banking system with a sophisticated banking system which is capable of assessing default risks of entrepreneurs more accurately. By charging actuarially fair loan-interest rates, the sophisticated system finances fewer entrepreneurs. Relative to the simple system, both their repayments and liabilities are lower. Expected aggregate profits of entrepreneurs are higher but consumers receive lower deposit rates. Refined risk assessment may increase the systemic default risk of a banking system if bank equity is too low. Requiring higher bank equity ratios and forcing banks to refine their risk assessment techniques tend to increase stability if taken together, but may not be successful if only the latter is implemented. We draw implications for the policy debate, sparked by the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Gersbach & Jan Wenzelburger, "undated". "Refined Risk Assessment and Banking Stability," Working Papers ETH-RC-13-005, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    • Handle: RePEc:stz:wpaper:eth-rc-13-005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://web.sg.ethz.ch/RePEc/stz/wpaper/pdf/ETH-RC-13-005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    2. Mark Carey & René M. Stulz, 2007. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number care06-1.
    3. Al-Najjar, Nabil Ibraheem, 1995. "Decomposition and Characterization of Risk with a Continuum of Random Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1195-1224, September.
    4. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Weber, Martin, 2001. "Generally accepted rating principles: A primer," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23, January.
    5. Gersbach, Hans & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "Debt contracts and collapse as competition phenomena," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 556-574, October.
    6. Gehrig, Thomas & ,, 2001. "Screening Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2010. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_42, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1997. "Financial Markets, Intermediaries, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 523-546, June.
    9. Carey, Mark & Stulz, René M. (ed.), 2007. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092850, September.
    10. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    11. Alos-Ferrer, C., 1998. "Individual Randomness in Economic Models with a Continuum Agents," Papers 9807, Washington St. Louis - School of Business and Political Economy.
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Wenzelburger, Jan, 2008. "Do Risk Premia Protect Against Banking Crises?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 100-111, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans Gersbach & Jan Wenzelburger, 2010. "Sophistication in Risk Management, Bank Equity, and Stability-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(s1), pages 63-91.
    2. Hans Gersbach & Jan Wenzelburger, 2010. "Sophistication in Risk Management, Bank Equity, and Stability," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 63-91, March.
    3. Hans Gersbach & Jan Wenzelburger, 2004. "Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000356, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Simon Cornée, 2014. "Soft Information and Default Prediction in Cooperative and Social Banks," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 89-103, June.
    5. Antje Brunner & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2013. "Hold-up in multiple banking: evidence from SME lending," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 78-101.
    6. Zsolt Becsi & Victor Li & Ping Wang, 2002. "Mismatch in Credit Markets," Departmental Working Papers 2002-03, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    7. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    8. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2015. "Financial innovation and endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-24.
    9. Prateek Sharma, 2022. "Management quality, M-rating, and bank failures," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 1-32, February.
    10. Antonio Nicolo' & Loriana Pelizzon, 2005. "Credit Derivatives: Capital Requirements and Strategic Contracting," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0006, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    11. Daniel Detzer, 2012. "New instruments for banking regulation and monetary policy after the crisis," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 233-254.
    12. Driss, Hamdi & Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane, 2021. "Institutional investment horizons, corporate governance, and credit ratings: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. ULGEN, Faruk, 2010. "Crise systémique et régulation financière [Systemic crisis and financial regulation]," MPRA Paper 35466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Innovation, finance, and economic growth: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 703-736, July.
    15. Amélie Artis & Simon Cornée, 2013. "Transformation informationnelle, certification et intermédiation financière : le cas de la banque solidaire," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 201326, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    16. European Commission, 2011. "Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2011: tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability," Taxation Papers 28, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    17. Mullineux, Andrew W., 2012. "Taxing banks fairly," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 154-158.
    18. Rui Wang & Zhangxi Lin & Hang Luo, 2019. "Blockchain, bank credit and SME financing," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1127-1140, May.
    19. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 58.
    20. Zehao Liu & Chengbo Xie, 2023. "Haircuts, interest rates, and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(1), pages 69-109, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stz:wpaper:eth-rc-13-005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudio J. Tessone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dmethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.