IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stc/stcp3e/2006268e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Instability and Long-Run Inequality of Workers' Earnings in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Gray, David
  • Finnie, Ross
  • Beach, Charles M.

Abstract

This paper examines the variability of workers' earnings in Canada over the period 1982-1997 and how earnings variability has varied in terms of the unemployment rate and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over this period. Using a large panel of tax file data, we decompose total variation in earnings across workers and time into a long-run inequality component between workers and an average earnings instability component over time for workers. The analysis is done for men and women and for both long-run participants and a broad coverage of workers. We find an increase in earnings variability between 1982-1989 and 1990-1997 that is largely confined to men and largely driven by widening long-run earnings inequality. Second, the pattern of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects on these variance components is not consistent with conventional explanations of cyclical effects on earnings inequality and is suggestive of an alternative paradigm of how economic growth over this period widens long-run earnings inequality. Third, when the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects are considered jointly, macroeconomic improvement is found to reduce the overall variability of earnings as the reduction in earnings instability outweighs the general widening of long-run earnings inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Gray, David & Finnie, Ross & Beach, Charles M., 2006. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Instability and Long-Run Inequality of Workers' Earnings in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2006268e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  • Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2006268e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/11F0019M2006268
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles M. Beach & Ross Finnie, 2004. "A longitudinal analysis of earnings change in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 219-240, February.
    2. Finnie, Ross & Beach, Charles M., 2004. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Earnings Change in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004227e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    3. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-375, April.
    4. Bartel, Ann & Lach, Saul & Sicherman, Nachum, 2005. "Outsourcing and Technological Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 5082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Charles Beach & Ross Finnie, 2004. "A longitudinal analysis of earnings change in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 219-240, February.
    6. Charles M. Beach & Ross Finnie & David Gray, 2003. "Earnings Variability and Earnings Instability of Women and Men in Canada: How Do the 1990s Compare to the 1980s?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(s1), pages 41-64, January.
    7. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-445, March.
    8. R. Moffitt & P. Gottschalk, "undated". "Trends in the covariance structure of earnings in the United States: 1969-1987," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1001-93, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    9. Lillard, Lee A & Weiss, Yoram, 1979. "Components of Variation in Panel Earnings Data: American Scientists, 1960-70," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 437-454, March.
    10. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2002. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Earnings in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 68-73, March.
    11. Lars Osberg & Andrew Sharpe, 2002. "An Index of Economic Well–Being for Selected OECD Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(3), pages 291-316, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles M. Beach & David Gray & Ross Finnie, 2006. "Long-run Inequality And Annual Instability Of Men's And Women's Earnings In Canada," Working Paper 1116, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2008. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings in the U.S., 1970-2004," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 697, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. In Choi, 2019. "Unit Root Tests for Dependent Micropanels," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 145-167, June.
    3. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1514 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. María Cervini-Plá & Xavier Ramos, 2012. "Long-Term Earnings Inequality, Earnings Instability and Temporary Employment in Spain: 1993–2000," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 714-736, December.
    5. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," TSE Working Papers 13-380, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Otto Kässi, 2014. "Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 451-477, March.
    7. Denisa Maria Sologon & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2009. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality in EU, 1994-2001," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 184, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    8. Stephen Jenkins & Peter Lambert, 2011. "Robert Moffitt and Peter Gottschalk’s 1995 paper ‘Trends in the covariance structure of earnings in the US: 1969–1987’," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 433-437, September.
    9. Kalwij, Adriaan & Alessie, Rob, 2003. "Permanent and Transitory Wage Inequality of British Men, 1975-2001: Year, Age and Cohort Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 686, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Sologon, Denisa Maria & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2010. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality among Men in Luxembourg, 1988-2004: Evidence from Administrative Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5014, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Denisa Maria Sologon & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2011. "Shaping earnings instability: labour market policy and institutional factors," MERIT Working Papers 2011-077, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. repec:use:tkiwps:044 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gregory Veramendi, 2012. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Model of Search and Human Capital Accumulation," 2012 Meeting Papers 1059, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Lance Lochner & Youngki Shin, 2014. "Understanding Earnings Dynamics: Identifying and Estimating the Changing Roles of Unobserved Ability, Permanent and Transitory Shocks," NBER Working Papers 20068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer & Terry A Yip, 2019. "Age-Income Dynamics Over The Life Course: Cohort Transition Patterns In Relative Income Based On Canadian Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, McMaster University.
    17. Ostrovsky, Yuri, 2008. "Earnings Inequality and Earnings Instability of Immigrants in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2008309e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    18. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2024. "Recent development of covariance structure analysis in economics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 31-48.
    19. Sologon, Denisa Maria & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2009. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality among Men across 14 EU Countries, 1994-2001: Evidence from ECHP," IZA Discussion Papers 4012, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. P. Jenkins, Stephen, 2009. "Spaghetti unravelled: a model-based description of differences in income-age trajectories," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    21. Mirko Felchner, 2015. "Einkommensdynamik bei Selbständigen als Freie Berufe und abhängig Beschäftigte Eine dynamische Paneldatenschätzung mit Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels," FFB-Discussionpaper 101, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    22. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2012. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings: Methods and Evidence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(1), pages 204-236.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income; pensions; spending and wealth; Labour; Low income and inequality; Wages; salaries and other earnings; Work transitions and life stages;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2006268e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Brown (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.