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Plus-values, consommation et épargne: Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni

Author

Listed:
  • Corinne Houizot

    (Institut Curie : Recherche, lutte et soins contre le cancer)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (BNP Paribas)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Francisco Serranito

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord)

Abstract

La forte hausse des cours boursiers, observée dans la seconde moitié des années 1990, est fréquemment évoquée pour expliquer le dynamisme, au cours de cette période, de la consommation des ménages américains et britanniques, et son corollaire, la baisse du taux d'épargne. Cet article analyse les déterminants de la consommation des ménages dans ces deux pays, et en particulier l'importance de l'effet richesse. Il comporte trois parties : un survol des évolutions de la consommation, de l'épargne et de la richesse des ménages au cours des quarante dernières années ; un rappel de la théorie et des modèles à tester ; enfin la présentation des résultats économétriques. Aux États-Unis, d'après nos estimations, une augmentation d'un dollar de la richesse des ménages conduit à un accroissement de la consommation de l'ordre de 5,5 cents, soit des résultats proches de ceux publiés depuis Ando et Modigliani (1963). La forte baisse du taux d'épargne dans la période récente proviendrait essentiellement de la hausse de la Bourse. Au Royaume- Uni, une livre de richesse financière ou immobilière supplémentaire serait consommée à hauteur de 5 pence environ. Les fluctuations de la richesse immobilière résultant de la bulle immobilière de la fin des années 1980 et de son éclatement auraient fortement influencé le taux d'épargne. L'augmentation de la richesse financière aurait contribué positivement à la baisse du taux d'épargne au cours des dernières années.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Houizot & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Francisco Serranito, 2000. "Plus-values, consommation et épargne: Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1784, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carol C. Bertaut, 2002. "Equity prices, household wealth, and consumption growth in foreign industrial countries: wealth effects in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 724, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Sandrine Levasseur, 2009. "De la crise financière à la crise économique. Une analyse comparative France-États-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 255-281.
    3. Ruxandra Vilag & George Ionescu & Iuliana Predescu & Stela Toader, 2010. "The Romanian Response To The Financial Crisis," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(4-1), pages 37-47, Winter-Sp.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consommation des ménages; épargne; comportement;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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